COL⇄WSN

COLCOL Bob Gebhard net +$3.2M net +1.6

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $28M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 2.1 ± 4 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 1998 odds 6% → 6% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dave VeresP·31y·R/R

+$2.7M+$2.7M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.48/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.84 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Mark HamlinOF·24y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#716 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Jim Beattie net −$3.2M net -1.6

received +$12.0M+$12.0M ± $44M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 4.2 ± 6 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1998 odds 2% → 2% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark MangumP·19y·R/R

+$12.9M+$12.9M± $39M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 3.5± 5 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#18 overall draft pick → 0.58/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.58/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Terry JonesOF·27y·B/R

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#1136 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.9/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.16/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.80 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.