KCR⇄BOS

KCRKCR Herk Robinson net +$1.6M net +0.1

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $10M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.8 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 1995 odds 4% → 4% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Wes ChamberlainOF·29y·R/R

+$3.6M+$3.6M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.42/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Dan Duquette net −$1.6M net -0.1

received +$5.6M+$4.8M ± $7M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.0 ± 1 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 1995 odds 96% → 96% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris JamesOF·32y·R/R

+$5.2M+$4.5M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.0± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.75/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.