NYM⇄KCR

NYMNYM Jim Duquette net +$9.6M net +1.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

José BautistaOF·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

#599 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Allard Baird net −$9.6M net -1.4

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $21M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 1.4 ± 3 expected · -1.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Justin Huber1B/OF·21y·R/R

+$2.8M+$2.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 1.4± 3 exp WARrealized -1.0

Prior

Composite #66.0 prospect (Baseball America #66 (2003)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.26/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.26/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.