SDP⇄BAL

SDPSDP Josh Byrnes net +$1.6M net +0.0

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $16M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.0 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Troy PattonP·28y·B/L

+$3.0M+$3.0M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.33/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Dan Duquette net −$1.6M net +0.0

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $6M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Nick HundleyC·30y·R/R

−$0.7M−$0.7M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.03/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.