ATL⇄PIT

ATLATL John Schuerholz net +$0.0M net +0.1

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.6 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 1999 odds 91% → 91% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Freddy García3B/OF·26y·R/R

+$0.9M+$0.9M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.6± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.34/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.20/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Cam Bonifay net +$0.0M net -0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $5M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 1999 odds 5% → 5% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Greg Dukeman

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.