LAD⇄CLE

LADLAD Fred Claire net +$1.6M net +0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $33M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 1988 odds 40% → 40% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Greg LaFeverP

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $33M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#349 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Hank Peters net −$1.6M net -0.1

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $25M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1988 odds 4% → 4% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Reggie WilliamsOF·27y·R/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

-0.08/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.