NYM⇄LAD

NYMNYM Jim Duquette net +$1.6M net +0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2004 odds 2% → 2% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tony SocarrasC·25y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#530 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Dan Evans net −$1.6M net -0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $10M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2004 odds 66% → 65% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tom WilsonC·33y·R/R

−$0.2M−$0.2M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.35/yr blended

Horizon

2.8 control yrs × 0.51 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.