ARI⇄PIT

ARIARI Mike Hazen net −$3.2M net +0.0

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $14M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Diego Castillo2B/SS·25y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

-0.04/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Ben Cherington net +$3.2M net +0.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Scott RandallP·24y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#198 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.