MIN⇄MIA

MINMIN Derek Falvey net +$0.8M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2023 odds 62% → 63% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Kim Ng net −$0.8M net -0.1

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $5M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2023 odds 5% → 5% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Sean NolinP·33y·L/L

−$1.2M−$1.2M± $5M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#186 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

2.8 control yrs × 0.36 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.