CHW⇄STL

CHWCHW Ken Harrelson net +$9.6M net +2.1

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $24M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 1.6 ± 3 expected · 1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1987 odds 7% → 11% (+3.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Fred Manrique2B·25y·R/R

+$3.0M+$3.0M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 1.6± 3 exp WARrealized 1.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.30/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL Dal Maxvill net −$9.6M net -2.1

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $18M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 0.7 ± 2 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 1987 odds 33% → 24% (-9.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bill DawleyP·29y·R/R

+$0.8M+$0.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.28/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.63 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.