NYY⇄TEX

NYYNYY Lou Piniella net +$6.4M net +1.1

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $22M expected surplus · +$6.4M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 1.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 1989 odds 8% → 10% (+2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bob BrowerOF·29y·R/R

+$5.0M+$5.0M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 1.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.37/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.78 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Tom Grieve net −$6.4M net -1.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $14M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.9 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1989 odds 34% → 28% (-5.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bob MeachamSS·28y·B/R

+$2.6M+$2.6M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.9± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.47/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.