SDP⇄ANA

SDPSDP Randy Smith net +$7.2M net +1.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.7 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1994 odds 2% → 2% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Hilly HathawayP·24y·L/L

−$0.1M−$0.1M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.7± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#459 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.14/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Whitey Herzog net −$7.2M net -1.1

received +$6.4M+$5.6M ± $14M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 1.6 ± 2 expected · -1.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 1994 odds 1% → 1% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Harold Reynolds2B·33y·B/R

+$6.0M+$5.3M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized -1.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

1.16/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.