BOS⇄NYY

BOSBOS Lou Gorman net +$10.4M net +0.2

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $7M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · 1.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 1986 odds 45% → 43% (-1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Don BaylorDH/OF·37y·R/R

+$1.0M+$1.0M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 1.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.48/yr blended

Horizon

0.6 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Clyde King net −$10.4M net -0.2

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $11M expected surplus · −$11.2M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · 1.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 1986 odds 61% → 62% (+1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike EaslerDH/OF·35y·L/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$11.2M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized 1.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.33/yr blended

Horizon

1.7 control yr × 0.66 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.