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December 11, 1986

NYM⇄SDP

NYM won this trade +$128.0M surplus NYM won this trade +16.9 WAR
NYMNYM Frank Cashen net +$128.0M net +16.9
received +$75.2M+$75.2M ± $76M expected surplus · +$111.2M realized received 11.0 ± 10 expected · 15.1 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1987 odds 80% → 83% (+2.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Kevin McReynoldsOF·27y·R/R
+$66.8M+$66.8M± $49M exp surplusrealized +$113.6M 7.9± 6 exp WARrealized 15.1
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 3.3/yr over 1.6 season
Talent
1.98/yr blended
Horizon
4.0 control yrs
Gene WalterP·26y·L/L
+$6.3M+$6.3M± $51M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.8± 6 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 0.7/yr over 1.3 season
Talent
0.46/yr blended
Horizon
4.0 control yrs
Adam GingSS
+$2.3M+$2.3M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
#624 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
6.0 control yrs
SDPSDP Jack McKeon net −$128.0M net -16.9
received +$111.2M+$111.2M ± $57M expected surplus · −$16.8M realized received 16.0 ± 7 expected · -1.8 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1987 odds 6% → 5% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Kevin MitchellOF·25y·R/R
+$99.5M+$99.5M± $31M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 11.5± 4 exp WARrealized 1.0
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 3.8/yr over 0.7 season
Talent
2.30/yr blended
Horizon
5.0 control yrs
Stan JeffersonOF·24y·B/R
+$7.5M+$7.5M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 1.8± 3 exp WARrealized -0.6
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 1.8/yr over 0.1 season
Talent
0.32/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Kevin ArmstrongX·23y
+$2.3M+$2.3M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0
Prior
#464 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
6.0 control yrs
Shawn AbnerOF·21y·R/R
+$1.8M+$1.8M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$16.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -2.2
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs
Kevin Brown
+$0.3M+$0.3M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0
Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

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Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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