HOU⇄SDP

HOUHOU Tim Purpura net −$3.2M net +0.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $30M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 0.9 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2005 odds 45% → 46% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Humberto QuinteroC·25y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 0.9± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.16/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$3.2M net -0.5

received +$15.2M+$15.2M ± $22M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 2.4 ± 3 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2005 odds 30% → 29% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tim ReddingP·27y·R/R

+$15.5M+$15.5M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 2.4± 3 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

#610 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.82/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.