CHW⇄CHC

CHWCHW Larry Himes net +$4.8M net +0.5

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1990 odds 18% → 20% (+1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Frank CamposRF·66y·L/L

−$0.7M−$0.7M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Jim Frey net −$4.8M net -0.5

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $21M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 1990 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bill LongP·30y·R/R

+$4.7M+$4.7M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.58/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.75 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.