SEA⇄WSN

SEASEA Woody Woodward net +$35.2M net +5.3

received +$28.8M+$28.8M ± $33M expected surplus · +$33.6M realized received 4.9 ± 4 expected · 7.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1997 odds 59% → 86% (+26.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff FasseroP·34y·L/L

+$29.4M+$29.4M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$33.6M 4.1± 3 exp WARrealized 7.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.1/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

2.84/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Alex PachecoP·23y·R/R

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.8± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.14/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Jim Beattie net −$35.2M net -5.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $45M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 2.5 ± 6 expected · 1.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1997 odds 34% → 11% (-23.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt WagnerP·25y·R/R

+$3.0M+$3.0M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#77 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.25/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Trey MooreP·24y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

#48 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Chris WidgerC·26y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

#82 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.8/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

-0.04/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.