TEX⇄CHC

TEXTEX Tom Grieve net +$442.4M net +42.3

received +$45.6M+$45.6M ± $55M expected surplus · +$424.0M realized received 8.4 ± 7 expected · 43.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1989 odds 22% → 28% (+6.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rafael Palmeiro1B·24y·L/L

+$24.5M+$24.5M± $38M exp surplusrealized +$419.2M 4.6± 5 exp WARrealized 42.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.30/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

1.15/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jamie MoyerP·26y·L/L

+$22.2M+$22.2M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 3.4± 4 exp WARrealized 1.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

1.14/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Drew HallP·26y·L/L

−$0.9M−$0.9M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.4± 3 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Jim Frey net −$442.4M net -42.3

received +$26.4M+$26.4M ± $73M expected surplus · −$18.4M realized received 7.1 ± 9 expected · 1.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 1989 odds 31% → 24% (-6.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Paul KilgusP·27y·L/L

+$22.1M+$22.1M± $38M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 3.3± 5 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.82/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Curt Wilkerson2B/SS·28y·B/R

+$3.3M+$3.3M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$16.0M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized -1.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.64/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Luis BenitezP·-3y·S/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#936 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Pablo Delgado

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Mitch WilliamsP·24y·L/L

−$0.2M−$0.2M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$16.8M 0.4± 3 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.15/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Steve WilsonP·24y·L/L

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $41M exp surplusrealized +$8.0M 0.6± 5 exp WARrealized 2.2

Prior

#83 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.1/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.11/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.