TEX⇄NYY

TEXTEX John Hart net +$8.8M net +0.4

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $31M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.9 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2003 odds 6% → 5% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Marcus ThamesDH/OF·26y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $31M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.9± 4 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#899 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.0/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.16/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net −$8.8M net -0.4

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $5M expected surplus · −$9.6M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2003 odds 96% → 96% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rubén SierraOF·37y·B/R

−$0.2M−$0.2M± $5M exp surplusrealized −$9.6M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.34/yr blended

Horizon

0.6 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.