PHI⇄BAL

PHIPHI Lee Thomas net +$0.8M net +0.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $32M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

John PoseyC·24y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#44 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Roland Hemond net −$0.8M net +0.0

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $41M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Shane Turner3B/OF·26y·L/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $41M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 5 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#155 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.1/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

-0.00/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.