BOS⇄CHW

BOSBOS Lou Gorman net +$18.4M net +1.4

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $0M expected surplus · +$9.6M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 2.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 1986 odds 28% → 43% (+15.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tom SeaverP·41y·R/R

−$0.7M−$0.7M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$9.6M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 2.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.9/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

1.90/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Ken Harrelson net −$18.4M net -1.4

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $36M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 0.3 ± 4 expected · 0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1986 odds 5% → 3% (-2.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Steve Lyons3B/OF·26y·L/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $36M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 0.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.07/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.