MIN⇄BAL

MINMIN Derek Falvey net +$4.8M net +0.6

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $11M expected surplus · +$4.8M realized received 1.4 ± 1 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2026 odds 2.2% → 2.4% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dean KremerP·30y·R/R

+$11.1M+$11.1M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 1.4± 1 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

1.50/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.48 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Mike Elias net −$4.8M net -0.6

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Jhomnardo ReyesOF·18y·L/L

+$2.0M+$2.0M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.84 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.