ATL⇄SFG

ATLATL Alex Anthopoulos net +$4.8M net +0.5

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $2M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 0.1 ± 0 expected · 1.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2026 odds 10.0% → 11.3% (+1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tyler MahleP·31y·R/R

+$0.9M+$0.9M± $2M exp surplusrealized +$8.0M 0.1± 0 exp WARrealized 1.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.0/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

1.95/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr × 0.06 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Buster Posey net −$4.8M net -0.5

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $26M expected surplus · +$3.2M realized received 1.6 ± 3 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2026 odds 0.7% → 0.8% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Anthony MolinaP·24y·R/R

+$8.1M+$8.1M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 1.6± 3 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.33/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.