Every MLB amateur draft, 1985–2025. Real = career WAR so far. Expected = the model's full-career projection for this slot × position × age-at-draft (HS vs college), ± a predictive band. DVOS = Real minus what the same cohort has produced by the same number of years post-draft (apples-to-apples — so we don't punish a 2024 pick for not yet being a 10-yr veteran). Example: Bazzana (2024 #1, college IF) has Real 0.8; the typical #1 college IF has produced 1.6 WAR by year 2 post-draft, so his DVOS = −0.8 (0.8 behind cohort); long-run Expected ≈ 40 WAR. Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical, fit on 41 years of realized outcomes. SD leaderboard →
| Year | Pick | Rd | Team | Player | Pos | Age | B/T | Ht | Wt | Bonus | Bonus% | Scouting Dir | GM / POBO | Real | DVOS | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 1 | 1.1 | ARI | Dansby Swanson | IF SS | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 190 | — | — | Deric Ladnier | Dave Stewart | 29.5 | +9.1 | 40.2±3.9 |
| 2015 | 2 | 1.2 | HOU | Alex Bregman | IF 3B | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'10" | 190 | — | — | Mike Elias | Jeff Luhnow | 43.8 | +23.4 | 21.5±4.0 |
| 2015 | 3 | 1.3 | COL | Brendan Rodgers | IF 2B | 19 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 204 | — | — | Marc Gustafson | Jeff Bridich | 2.5 | -13.2 | 18.9±4.2 |
| 2015 | 4 | 1.4 | TEX | Dillon Tate | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 190 | — | — | Kip Fagg | Jon Daniels | 1.3 | -7.9 | 9.8±3.8 |
| 2015 | 5 | 1.5 | HOU | Kyle Tucker | OF RF | 18 HS | L/R | 6'3" | 212 | — | — | Mike Elias | Jeff Luhnow | 26.2 | +19.9 | 8.0±4.1 |
| 2015 | 6 | 1.6 | MIN | Tyler Jay | P P | 21 COLL | L/L | 6'0" | 191 | — | — | Deron Johnson | Terry Ryan | 0.0 | -7.5 | 7.9±3.8 |
| 2015 | 7 | 1.7 | BOS | Andrew Benintendi | DH DH | 21 COLL | L/L | 5'9" | 185 | — | — | Mike Rikard | Dave Dombrowski | 10.7 | -5.5 | 31.7±3.7 |
| 2015 | 8 | 1.8 | CHW | Carson Fulmer | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 210 | — | — | Nick Hostetler | Kenny Williams | -0.5 | -8.0 | 7.9±3.7 |
| 2015 | 9 | 1.9 | CHC | Ian Happ | OF LF | 21 COLL | S/R | 5'10" | 205 | — | — | Matt Dorey | Jed Hoyer | 21.7 | +11.1 | 8.5±3.9 |
| 2015 | 10 | 1.10 | PHI | Cornelius Randolph | OF OF | 18 HS | L/R | 5'11" | 205 | — | — | Johnny Almaraz | Scott Proefrock | 0.0 | -5.7 | 8.0±3.8 |
| 2015 | 11 | 1.11 | CIN | Tyler Stephenson | C C | 19 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 225 | — | — | Chris Buckley | Walt Jocketty | 7.0 | +4.0 | 3.6±4.1 |
| 2015 | 12 | 1.12 | MIA | Josh Naylor | IF 1B | 18 HS | L/L | 5'10" | 235 | — | — | — | Mike Berger | 10.4 | +4.4 | 7.8±3.8 |
| 2015 | 13 | 1.13 | TBR | Garrett Whitley | OF CF | 18 HS | R/R | 6'0" | 195 | — | — | R J Harrison | Matt Silverman | 0.0 | -5.7 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2015 | 14 | 1.14 | ATL | Kolby Allard | P P | 18 HS | L/L | 6'1" | 195 | — | — | Brian Bridges | John Hart | 1.2 | -2.9 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2015 | 15 | 1.15 | MIL | Trent Grisham | OF CF | 19 HS | L/L | 5'10" | 221 | — | — | Ray Montgomery | Douglas Melvin | 13.1 | +7.4 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2015 | 16 | 1.16 | NYY | James Kaprielian | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 225 | — | — | Damon Oppenheimer | Brian Cashman | 1.8 | -3.0 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2015 | 17 | 1.17 | CLE | Brady Aiken | P P | 19 HS | L/L | 6'4" | 205 | — | — | Brad Grant | Chris Antonetti | 0.0 | -4.1 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2015 | 18 | 1.18 | SFG | Phil Bickford | P P | 20 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 200 | — | — | — | Brian Sabean | 0.8 | -4.0 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2015 | 19 | 1.19 | PIT | Kevin Newman | IF 3B | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 195 | — | — | Joe Dellicarri | Neal Huntington | 2.3 | -7.0 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2015 | 20 | 1.20 | OAK | Richie Martin Jr. | IF SS | 21 COLL | R/R | 5'11" | 190 | — | — | Eric Kubota | Billy Beane | -1.1 | -10.3 | 10.8±3.7 |
| 2015 | 21 | 1.21 | KCR | Ashe Russell | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'4" | 201 | — | — | Lonnie Goldberg | Dayton Moore | 0.0 | -4.1 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2015 | 22 | 1.22 | DET | Beau Burrows | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 223 | — | — | Scott Pleis | Dave Dombrowski | -0.7 | -4.7 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2015 | 23 | 1.23 | STL | Nick Plummer | OF CF | 19 HS | L/L | 5'10" | 200 | — | — | Chris Correa | John Mozeliak | -0.1 | -5.8 | 8.0±3.7 |
| 2015 | 24 | 1.24 | LAD | Walker Buehler | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'2" | 185 | — | — | Billy Gasparino | Andrew Friedman | 15.5 | +10.7 | 5.5±3.7 |
| 2015 | 25 | 1.25 | BAL | DJ Stewart | OF RF | 22 COLL | L/R | 5'11" | 230 | — | — | Gary Rajsich | Dan Duquette | 1.0 | -3.2 | 4.4±3.7 |
| 2015 | 26 | 1.26 | ANA | Taylor Ward | OF LF | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'0" | 205 | — | — | Ric Wilson | Bill Stoneman | 12.0 | +7.9 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2015 | 27 | 1.27 | COL | Mike Nikorak | P P | 19 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 240 | — | — | Marc Gustafson | Jeff Bridich | 0.0 | -2.3 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2015 | 28 | 1.28 | ATL | Michael Soroka | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'5" | 250 | — | — | Brian Bridges | John Hart | 6.8 | +4.5 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2015 | 29 | 1.29 | TOR | Jon Harris | P P | 22 COLL | R/R | 6'4" | 175 | — | — | Brian Parker | Alex Anthopoulos | 0.0 | -2.3 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2015 | 30 | 1.30 | NYY | Kyle Holder | IF SS | 21 COLL | L/R | 6'1" | 204 | — | — | Damon Oppenheimer | Brian Cashman | 0.0 | -3.2 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2015 | 31 | 1.31 | SFG | Chris Shaw | OF LF | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'3" | 220 | — | — | — | Brian Sabean | -0.7 | -4.8 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2015 | 32 | 1.32 | PIT | Ke'Bryan Hayes | IF 3B | 18 HS | R/R | 5'11" | 215 | — | — | Joe Dellicarri | Neal Huntington | 10.7 | +8.4 | 2.8±3.7 |
| 2015 | 33 | 1.33 | KCR | Nolan Watson | P P | 18 HS | R/R | 6'2" | 195 | — | — | Lonnie Goldberg | Dayton Moore | 0.0 | -2.3 | 2.7±3.7 |
| 2015 | 34 | 1.34 | DET | Christin Stewart | OF LF | 22 COLL | L/R | 6'0" | 220 | — | — | Scott Pleis | Dave Dombrowski | -1.0 | -5.1 | 3.8±3.7 |
| 2015 | 35 | 1.35 | LAD | ✕ Kyle Funkhouser | P P | 21 COLL | R/R | 6'3" | 229 | — | — | Billy Gasparino | Andrew Friedman | 0.0 | -2.3 | 3.0±3.7 |
| 2015 | 36 | 1.36 | BAL | Ryan Mountcastle | IF 1B | 18 HS | R/R | 6'3" | 230 | — | — | Gary Rajsich | Dan Duquette | 6.0 | +3.7 | 2.8±3.7 |
Model: empirical-Bayes hierarchical — smooth monotone slot curve × position group (P/IF/OF/C/DH) × age bin (HS <20 vs COLL 20+) × maturity. The slot curve is forced monotone-decreasing within each position+age cell, so pick N can't have lower expected than pick N+1 by construction. Predictive ± band = √(σ²·(1 + 1/n_cell)) — pooled within-cell residual SD plus the cell-mean uncertainty for a new pick at that cell. Fallback chain when a (slot, pos, age) cell is too sparse: → (slot, pos) → (slot). Position × age effects: pitchers debut earlier (high realized at 2 yrs, lower career due to attrition); college catchers ~2× HS catchers career WAR at top slots; HS slot-1 IF/OF carry premium upside (Harper/Correa/A-Rod pattern). Coverage: position 100% (1985–2025), bio (born/ht/wt) ~97%, age 97%, signing bonus only ~11% (sparse pre-2008 — MLB Stats API hasn't backfilled). SD attribution follows SABR (single unambiguous name per team-year), GM uses our hire/POBO records. Team/GM development effects intentionally NOT in the model — that signal belongs on the DVOS-attribution side (per-SD on /sds, per-GM in this table), or it would collapse to zero by construction.