SEA⇄KCR

SEASEA Woody Woodward net +$1.6M net +0.3

received −$0.8M−$3.2M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1995 odds 71% → 72% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Vince ColemanOF·33y·B/R

−$0.6M−$2.9M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.12/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.67 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Herk Robinson net −$1.6M net -0.3

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $42M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 2.2 ± 5 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 1995 odds 5% → 4% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jim ConverseP·23y·L/R

+$6.8M+$6.8M± $42M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 2.2± 5 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#417 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.40/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.