KCR⇄HOU⇄OAK

KCRKCR Allard Baird net +$27.2M net +4.0

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $35M expected surplus · +$3.2M realized received 4.2 ± 4 expected · 6.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2004 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike WoodP·24y·R/R

+$3.4M+$3.4M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.5± 2 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

#311 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.27/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Mark Teahen3B/OF·22y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 3.7

Prior

#39 overall draft pick → 0.23/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.23/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

John BuckC·23y·R/R

+$1.4M+$1.4M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 1.4± 3 exp WARrealized 3.5

Prior

Composite #67.0 prospect (Baseball America #67 (2003)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.26/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.26/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Gerry Hunsicker net −$23.2M net -1.5

received +$73.6M+$48.0M ± $19M expected surplus · −$24.0M realized received 5.8 ± 2 expected · 2.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2004 odds 56% → 71% (+15.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carlos BeltránOF·27y·B/R

+$73.8M+$48.2M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$24.0M 5.8± 2 exp WARrealized 2.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 5.7/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

3.87/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$4.0M net -2.5

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $15M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 2.1 ± 2 expected · 0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2004 odds 32% → 33% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Octavio DotelP·30y·R/R

−$2.7M−$2.7M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 2.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

1.44/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.