SEA⇄HOU

SEASEA Woody Woodward net +$171.2M net +28.4

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $41M expected surplus · +$196.0M realized received 4.5 ± 5 expected · 31.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1998 odds 67% → 52% (-14.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carlos GuillénSS·22y·B/R

+$5.1M+$5.1M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$20.0M 2.2± 3 exp WARrealized 7.2

Prior

Composite #27.0 prospect (Baseball America #27 (1997)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.41/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.41/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Freddy GarcíaP·21y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$136.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 18.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

John HalamaP·26y·L/L

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$40.0M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized 6.1

Prior

#640 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Gerry Hunsicker net −$171.2M net -28.4

received +$90.4M+$56.8M ± $22M expected surplus · +$24.8M realized received 6.5 ± 3 expected · 3.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 1998 odds 90% → 94% (+4.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Randy JohnsonP·34y·R/L

+$90.2M+$57.0M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$24.8M 6.5± 3 exp WARrealized 3.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form 6.5/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

4.40/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.