STL⇄NYM

STLSTL Walt Jocketty net +$2.4M net +0.7

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $18M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 1998 odds 38% → 47% (+8.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Juan AcevedoP·28y·R/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

#403 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

-0.08/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Steve Phillips net −$2.4M net -0.7

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $27M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 2.4 ± 3 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1998 odds 14% → 10% (-3.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rigo BeltránP·28y·L/L

+$9.1M+$9.1M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 2.4± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#675 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.57/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.85 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.