BAL⇄CLE

BALBAL Frank Wren net +$7.2M net +0.2

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 1999 odds 44% → 45% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Juan Aracena

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Jimmy Hamilton

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE John Hart net −$7.2M net -0.2

received −$5.6M−$5.6M ± $0M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1999 odds 88% → 88% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Harold BainesDH/OF·40y·L/L

−$5.9M−$5.9M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

1.36/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.