BOS⇄ATL

BOSBOS Lou Gorman net +$14.4M net +0.4

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $32M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 1.8 ± 4 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 1992 odds 2% → 2% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Nate MincheyP·22y·R/R

+$3.8M+$3.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 1.6± 4 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

#36 overall draft pick → 0.28/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.28/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Sean Ross

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL John Schuerholz net −$14.4M net -0.4

received −$11.2M−$11.2M ± $9M expected surplus · −$12.8M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 1992 odds 63% → 65% (+1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff ReardonP·36y·R/R

−$11.4M−$11.4M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$12.8M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

0.35/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.