MIL⇄TBR

MILMIL Matt Arnold net −$0.8M net +0.1

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $10M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2026 odds 72.3% → 72.9% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jake WoodfordP·29y·R/R

−$0.6M−$0.6M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.22/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.57 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$0.8M net -0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

K.C. HuntP·25y·L/R

+$1.9M+$1.9M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#350 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.86 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.