CLE⇄SFG

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net +$2.4M net +0.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2009 odds 2% → 2% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott BarnesP·21y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#237 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net −$2.4M net -0.4

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $20M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.5 ± 2 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2009 odds 28% → 26% (-1.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ryan Garko1B·28y·R/R

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.5± 2 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.16/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.85 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.