DET⇄SDP

DETDET Randy Smith net −$11.2M net +4.2

received +$0.8M−$12.0M ± $27M expected surplus · −$11.2M realized received 1.6 ± 3 expected · 4.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1997 odds 1% → 2% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brian JohnsonC·29y·R/R

+$2.9M+$2.9M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 1.4± 3 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.44/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.81 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Willie BlairP·31y·R/R

−$2.4M−$15.2M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 4.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.71 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$11.2M net -4.2

received +$12.0M+$12.0M ± $43M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 3.9 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1997 odds 1% → 1% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cam SmithOF·-6y·R/R

+$13.2M+$13.2M± $37M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 3.6± 5 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#14 overall draft pick → 0.65/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.65/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Joey EischenP·27y·L/L

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#91 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.08/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.