STL⇄ARI

STLSTL Walt Jocketty net +$0.8M net +0.2

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $22M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.4 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 1999 odds 8% → 9% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Clint SodowskyP·26y·L/R

−$0.9M−$0.9M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.4± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.11/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Joe Garagiola net −$0.8M net -0.2

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $13M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 1999 odds 86% → 85% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John FrascatoreP·29y·R/R

−$1.9M−$1.9M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.50 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.