OAK⇄NYY

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$9.6M net +0.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2019 odds 63% → 64% (+1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

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NYYNYY Brian Cashman net −$9.6M net -0.2

received −$6.4M−$6.4M ± $7M expected surplus · −$9.6M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2019 odds 84% → 84% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kendrys Morales1B/DH·36y·B/R

−$6.0M−$6.0M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$9.6M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

0.46/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.