LAD⇄NYM

LADLAD Tommy Lasorda net +$28.0M net +2.1

received +$5.6M−$1.6M ± $10M expected surplus · +$17.6M realized received 0.9 ± 1 expected · 1.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 1998 odds 4% → 6% (+2.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brian BohanonP·29y·L/L

+$5.9M−$1.3M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$17.6M 0.9± 1 exp WARrealized 1.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.34/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

0.58/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Steve Phillips net −$28.0M net -2.1

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $14M expected surplus · −$10.4M realized received 1.6 ± 2 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1998 odds 16% → 10% (-5.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Greg McMichaelP·31y·R/R

−$0.7M−$0.7M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$10.4M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

1.09/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.