MIN⇄SFG

MINMIN Terry Ryan net +$132.0M net +29.8

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $31M expected surplus · +$125.6M realized received 3.4 ± 4 expected · 30.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2004 odds 27% → 40% (+12.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Francisco LirianoP·20y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$81.6M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 13.4

Prior

Composite #83.0 prospect (Baseball America #83 (2003)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.24/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.24/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Boof BonserP·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$12.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 2.8

Prior

Composite #29.0 prospect (Baseball America #29 (2002)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed → 0.22/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.22/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Joe NathanP·29y·R/R

−$1.2M−$1.2M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$32.0M 0.9± 1 exp WARrealized 14.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.57/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net −$132.0M net -29.8

received +$32.8M+$32.8M ± $32M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 7.3 ± 4 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2004 odds 57% → 43% (-13.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

A. J. PierzynskiC·27y·L/R

+$32.8M+$32.8M± $32M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 7.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.8/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

2.45/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.