KCR⇄ARI

KCRKCR Dayton Moore net +$15.2M net +3.4

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $27M expected surplus · +$15.2M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 3.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2008 odds 1% → 2% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alberto Callaspo2B/3B·25y·B/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$15.2M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 3.8

Prior

Composite #82.0 pedigree (Baseball America #82 (2007)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.5/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

-0.53/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Josh Byrnes net −$15.2M net -3.4

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $34M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.8 ± 4 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2008 odds 16% → 12% (-3.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Billy BucknerP·24y·R/R

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $34M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.8± 4 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

#55 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.15/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.