CLE⇄OAK

CLECLE John Hart net +$33.6M net +4.5

received +$31.2M+$31.2M ± $53M expected surplus · +$26.4M realized received 4.5 ± 7 expected · 5.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1998 odds 56% → 54% (-2.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Steve KarsayP·26y·R/R

+$30.8M+$30.8M± $53M exp surplusrealized +$26.4M 4.5± 7 exp WARrealized 5.0

Prior

#22 overall draft pick → 0.44/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.89/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Sandy Alderson net −$33.6M net -4.5

received −$4.8M−$7.2M ± $10M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 1.0 ± 1 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 1998 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike FettersP·33y·R/R

−$4.4M−$7.0M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 1.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.26/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

0.75/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.