ARI⇄MIA

ARIARI Mike Hazen net +$1.6M net +0.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2024 odds 76% → 77% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Peter Bendix net −$1.6M net -0.2

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $22M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 2.3 ± 3 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2024 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Emmanuel Rivera3B·28y·R/R

+$7.0M+$7.0M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 2.3± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.59/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.