OAK⇄NYY

OAKOAK David Forst net +$2.4M net +0.2

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.8 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2024 odds 2% → 2% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jordan Groshans3B·24y·R/R

+$0.5M+$0.5M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.8± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#12 overall draft pick → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.6/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net −$2.4M net -0.2

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $14M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.9 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2024 odds 85% → 84% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

J. D. Davis3B·31y·R/R

+$5.6M+$5.5M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.9± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

1.34/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.