TEX⇄ARI

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net +$1.6M net +0.9

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $18M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 0.5 ± 2 expected · 0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2008 odds 12% → 13% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dustin NippertP·27y·R/R

−$1.1M−$1.1M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 0.5± 2 exp WARrealized 0.9

Prior

Composite #67.0 pedigree (Baseball America #67 (2006)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.80 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Josh Byrnes net −$1.6M net -0.9

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2008 odds 13% → 12% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José MarteP·12y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.