BAL⇄SFG

BALBAL Pat Gillick net +$12.8M net +0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $26M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 1998 odds 48% → 48% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Darin BloodP·23y·S/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#75 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net −$12.8M net -0.1

received −$12.8M−$12.8M ± $0M expected surplus · −$12.8M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 1998 odds 60% → 60% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joe CarterOF·38y·R/R

−$12.4M−$12.4M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$12.8M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

-0.13/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.