SFG⇄PIT

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net +$351.2M net +25.1

received +$8.8M+$4.0M ± $21M expected surplus · +$349.6M realized received 4.0 ± 3 expected · 26.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2001 odds 68% → 80% (+12.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John Vander WalOF·35y·L/L

+$7.5M+$2.7M± $16M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.9± 2 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

1.38/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Jason SchmidtP·28y·R/R

+$1.0M+$1.0M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$349.6M 2.1± 2 exp WARrealized 25.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

1.40/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Roy Smith net −$351.2M net -25.1

received +$31.2M+$31.2M ± $53M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 6.5 ± 7 expected · 1.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2001 odds 0% → 0% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Armando RíosOF·29y·L/L

+$28.3M+$28.3M± $49M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 5.1± 6 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

1.18/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.88 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Ryan VogelsongP·23y·R/R

+$2.8M+$2.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 1.4± 2 exp WARrealized 1.1

Prior

#158 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.25/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.