TBR⇄SFG

TBRTBR Erik Neander net +$3.2M net +0.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Jacob LopezP·21y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#766 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Farhan Zaidi net −$3.2M net -0.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Joe McCarthyOF·25y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#148 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.