Rosternomics
Log in Sign up 𝕏
← Trade Database
December 17, 2002

ATL⇄SFG

ATL won this trade +$61.6M surplus ATL won this trade +5.1 WAR
ATLATL John Schuerholz net +$61.6M net +5.1
received +$21.6M+$21.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$56.8M realized received 3.5 ± 2 expected · 5.2 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2003 odds 79% → 90% (+10.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Russ OrtizP·29y·R/R
+$21.4M+$21.4M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$56.8M 3.5± 2 exp WARrealized 5.2
Prior
league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 3.4/yr over 2.5 seasons
Talent
2.36/yr blended
Horizon
1.5 control yr
SFGSFG Brian Sabean net −$61.6M net -5.1
received +$17.6M+$17.6M ± $37M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 3.7 ± 5 expected · 0.1 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2003 odds 81% → 64% (-16.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Damian MossP·26y·R/L
+$16.1M+$16.1M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 2.5± 4 exp WARrealized 0.3
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 0.8/yr over 1.1 season
Talent
0.51/yr blended
Horizon
5.0 control yrs
Merkin ValdezP·21y·R/R
+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2
Prior
no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
no MLB track record — leans on pedigree
Talent
0.21/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

Rosternomics — front-office performance, roster value, and transaction history. Follow @rosternomics on X.
Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
Privacy Policy · Terms of Service · © 2026 Rosternomics