KCR⇄LAD

KCRKCR Dayton Moore net +$5.6M net +0.9

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.1 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2008 odds 1% → 2% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Juan RiveraOF·29y·R/R

+$9.8M+$9.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

1.06/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Ned Colletti net −$5.6M net -0.9

received −$0.8M−$1.6M ± $10M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · -0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2008 odds 27% → 23% (-4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ángel BerroaSS·30y·R/R

−$0.7M−$1.4M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized -0.9

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

-0.08/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.