ANA⇄MIN

ANAANA Mike Port net +$106.4M net +8.7

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $12M expected surplus · +$101.6M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · 8.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 1989 odds 26% → 55% (+29.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kevin Trudeau

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Bert BlylevenP·38y·R/R

−$3.6M−$3.6M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$101.6M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 8.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.3/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

2.27/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Andy MacPhail net −$106.4M net -8.7

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $53M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 3.5 ± 7 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 1989 odds 23% → 8% (-15.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rob WassenaarP·24y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#550 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Mike CookP·25y·R/R

+$2.2M+$2.2M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#19 overall draft pick → 0.50/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.25/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Paul Sorrento1B·23y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#103 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.