HOU⇄SDP

HOUHOU Gerry Hunsicker net +$8.8M net +2.9

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $25M expected surplus · +$3.2M realized received 1.8 ± 3 expected · 2.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 1998 odds 92% → 94% (+2.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Sean BergmanP·28y·R/R

+$6.5M+$6.5M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 1.8± 3 exp WARrealized 2.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.60/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net −$8.8M net -2.9

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $10M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1998 odds 43% → 33% (-9.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

James MoutonOF·29y·R/R

−$1.5M−$1.5M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.02/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.