KCR⇄WSN

KCRKCR Herk Robinson net +$0.0M net +0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $25M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 1997 odds 11% → 11% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Yamil BenítezOF·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Jim Beattie net +$0.0M net -0.1

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1997 odds 11% → 11% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Melvin BunchP·25y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#414 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.0/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

-0.02/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.